Opening Thoughts - Welcome to the Future

Greetings and welcome to the future. What future, you ask? 2008 doesn’t feel much different than 2007, right? Well, that’s the problem with linear thinking. We humans are hard-wired to draw perspective off the passage of time. We quickly recognize and categorize things that we have seen before and can accurately predict their behaviors in the moments ahead. That capability comes in quite handy if you are trying to spear an approaching saber-tooth tiger, or even hit a receiver on a post route down field.

So it’s natural that early 2008 feels more or less like first quarters past. We’ve seen the same friends and family, done the usual rituals, had the same planning meetings, even redone the budget as in years past.

But what if I told you that 2008 is going to be very different than 2007? What if I told you that there are new rules in play that leave linear thinking—especially for the business and technology strategists among us—on the sideline?

My prediction is that 2008 is the year where accelerating change overtakes linear thinking as the primary force in business and technology strategy. The new force in town is the Law of Accelerating Returns—the ex-tension of Moore’s Law to describe an exponential growth of technology progress. The power of technology is doubling every eighteen months—which means that the Blackberry I carry in 2015 will have just about as much computational horsepower as all computers in existence today!

That kind of muscle portends radical changes to how technology affects business. In fact, in many ways, technology will go from being an enabler to becoming a disruptor—with many more troublesome concepts and competitors emerging seemingly from nowhere.

In 2008, we’ll see technology-enabled business services manifest across the enterprise. Leading organizations will push the boundaries of virtualization, outsourcing, and automation. The global marketplace will blossom as investment capital chases the best return—creating additional challenges to suppliers focused on domestic goods and services. As the architect of your company’s technology strategy, understanding these accelerating disruptive forces may well mean the difference between business triumph and collapse.

Architecture and Governance magazine plans to embrace these forces head on. Our editorial calendar is chock-full of forward-thinking concepts, articles, and authors that will help you understand and execute winning business strategies. I hope you will take the time to contemplate the new rules and their implications to your business.

As for me, I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Effective January 1, I have launched a new research and advisory company called SciVestor (www.scivestor.com). We are focused on understanding the impact of the most transformative technologies coming over the next decade, and we are working with leading businesses and investment firms to help them catch these coming waves. I intend to continue my duties as editor of A&G and look forward to providing forward-looking advice and articles throughout the year ahead

by Jonas Lamis